Production Modeling for Grid-Tied PV Systems

All sectors of the maturing solar industry demand accurate production estimates, which require a clear understanding of how the estimates are produced and an ability to interpret the results. In this article we provide an overview of productionmodeling theory and review available production-modeling tools. We compare the tools’ performance to each other and to real systems, and provide a summary of the key uses of production modeling in PV projects. At the most basic level, production modeling comes down to two questions:

  • How much sunlight falls on an array?
  • How much power can a system produce with that sunlight?

Answering these questions requires location-specific parameters, such as shading and weather data; educated assumptions about system derating due to soiling, module mismatch, system availability; and complex algorithms to model available radiation as well as module and inverter performance. More detailed information is currently available in Ukrainian or Russian languages only.

Fig. 1. Equivalent circuit of solar photovoltaic module.
Fig. 1. Equivalent circuit of solar photovoltaic module.