прогнозирование работы солнечной электростанции

Forecasting of a solar power plant’s operation

According to the local legislation, forecasting of electricity generation becomes mandatory for all participants in the Ukrainian solar energy market from January 1st, 2021. As part of our operation and maintenance services for commercial solar power plants, Avenston provides forecasting service for the operation of photovoltaic power plants. We prepare and submit reports with predicted levels of electricity production and help to timely submit them to state control authorities.

A solar forecast is a calculated forecast of the amount of electricity that will be generated by a solar power plant over a given period of time. Correct and accurate forecasting is essential for the successful integration of renewable energy systems into the Ukrainian energy system. Accurate forecasts can help determine the cost of electricity for the day ahead and also prevent imbalance penalties.

The Avenston company offers a service for forecasting the operation of solar power plants, including – hourly for the day ahead. This service includes the following:

  • Research of equipment and solar station parameters (capacity, type of equipment, angle of inclination of panels, geolocation, season);
  • Test calculation of PV power plant’s generation;
  • Forecasting up to 10 days ahead;
  • Data correction every 6:00 or every 30 minutes during daylight hours;
  • Hourly forecasting of electricity production;
  • Automated submission of forecast data to the market operator – data delivery to FTP server (.CSV file) or via API (.XML file);
  • Production forecasting, GHI, GTI, DNI, temperature, wind speed and direction, pressure, humidity, etc.;
  • Correction of forecast data based on data from a local weather station;
  • Responsibility for the correctness of the forecasts for the generation of a solar farm.

To improve forecasting accuracy, images from several geostationary weather satellites are used, which take images of the Earth from space every 5-15 minutes, with a spatial resolution of up to 1 kilometer. We get each of these images processed using geocoding, quality control and solar radiation algorithms in a few tens of seconds before the data enters the algorithms that predict where the cloud cover will go next. This includes exposure to aerosols (dust, smoke, etc.) as well as low-lying clouds or fog. With each new satellite image, predictive data is played back using machine learning algorithms that learns the best predictions.

We also provide the following services:

  • Formation of projected data on electricity generation (layout 100110) and downloading forecast volumes “a day in advance” to the server of SE Guaranteed Buyer through the personal account of the solar plant’s owner
  • Formation of projected data on electricity generation and downloading forecast volumes “a day in advance” to the regional branch of PJSC NEC “Ukrenergo”
  • Technical report for NERC Form #1В
  • Technical report for NERC Form #2
  • Technical report for NERC Form #4A
  • Technical report for NERC Form #4B

Initial data to calculate price for the forecasting of solar plant’s operation

To obtain a detailed commercial offer, please, contact our specialists. The list of documents that must be provided for the most accurate forecasting of generation from your solar power plant is the following:

  • Exact geographic coordinates of the solar power plant;
  • The number of solar modules and their type;
  • Master plan for the placement of solar modules indicating the azimuth and angle of inclination to the earth’s surface (indicate if the angle of inclination is variable);
  • The number of solar inverters and their type;
  • Data on generation from inverters for the last year with an interval of 5 (15) minutes
  • Data from the meters of the ASKUE system for the last year;
  • Access to the office for data transmission of the State Enterprise “Guaranteed Buyer”;
  • Data on solar power plant’ shutdowns for the last year (planned, emergency);
  • Access to commercial metering system;
  • Access to the monitoring system of inverters (in view mode).